Emerging markets like Brazil and Turkey present unique investment opportunities in 2025, but careful due diligence is essential. This article explores quantitative trends, regulatory shifts and sector-specific considerations to help investors structure resilient portfolios and avoid common pitfalls.
The Brazilian real estate market continues to grow on the back of structural housing demand. Official statistics indicate that 2024 saw 18.6 % more developments and a 20.9 % rise in transactions. This expansion owes much to subsidised credit programmes such as FGTS and Minha Casa, Minha Vida, which now support households earning up to BRL 12 000. At the same time, high interest rates have prompted developers and lenders to securitise mortgages via instruments like LCIs (real estate credit bills) and CRIs (real estate receivables certificates), deepening Brazil’s capital markets.
On the regulatory front, Brazil’s 2025 Tax Reform Statute (No 214/2025) replaces several taxes with the IBS and CBS, to be phased in between 2026 and 2033. While exemptions remain for real estate investment trusts (FIIs) and agri-funds (Fiagros), investors must reassess after-tax returns and monitor possible increases in transactional costs. Corporate real estate segments, offices, logistics and retail, are recovering, supported by a strong labour market and built-to-suit projects. In addition, infrastructure-linked real estate projects (such as railway concessions) are unlocking new corridors for urban development.
Turkey’s market is recovering from inflationary overhang. Policy stabilisation by the central bank and demand for earthquake-resistant housing are driving a move from speculative flipping to long-term investing. Price growth is expected to decelerate from 10–18 % in 2025 to 8–14 % in 2026. Foreign buyers continue to capitalise on the USD 400 k citizenship threshold and seek high-yield locations, especially Istanbul, Antalya, Izmir and Bodrum. Key strategies include focusing on new developments for safety and resale value, investing in rental yield hubs and avoiding outdated buildings lacking earthquake compliance.
For investors from Brazil, Turkey or the USA, diversification across emerging markets can mitigate country-specific risks. Use quantitative indicators, such as price-to-income ratios, rental yields and construction starts, to decide allocations. Additionally, evaluate currency hedging strategies to manage volatility. Because these markets are less efficient than core European or U.S. markets, working with local advisors and professional fund managers (like Pagani Capital and its partners) is critical.
Readers interested in this topic can explore Global Trends and Housing Affordability and Policy.
