As 2025 draws to a close, investors are already positioning for 2026. This forward-looking article synthesises macroeconomic forecasts, sectoral shifts and innovation trends to help global investors anticipate opportunities and risks in real estate and private equity.
Macro Forecasts and Rate Expectations
ECB projections suggest Eurozone GDP growth of 1.4 % in 2025 and 1.2 % in 2026, with inflation settling at 1.9 % to 2.0 %. The ECB appears comfortable with rates around 2 %, leaving scope for modest cuts depending on data. In Portugal, Banco de Portugal expects public debt to fall from 93.6 % of GDP in 2024 to 88.2 % in 2025 and to 79.5 % by 2028, indicating fiscal space for investment. In the USA, the Federal Reserve may begin loosening policy only if inflation falls sustainably, leaving mortgage rates elevated.
Sectoral Themes for 2026
- Living and Hospitality – Demographic demand for student housing, senior living and hospitality assets continues to attract capital. Portugal’s eco-resort developments financed via convertible bonds exemplify this trend.
- Logistics and Infrastructure – Rising e-commerce and near-shoring drive demand for logistics facilities. PwC’s report highlights that assets “at the intersection of real estate and infrastructure,” including data centres and new energy projects, offer outsized returns.
- Sustainability and ESG – Regulatory pressure and investor demand will intensify the focus on energy efficiency and ESG compliance. Green buildings may enjoy financing advantages and rental premiums.
- Emerging Markets – Brazil’s housing and logistics sectors will continue to expand as tax reforms stabilize and credit markets deepen. Turkey’s shift towards long-term investing and demand for earthquake-safe developments will support steady, if moderate, price growth.
- Private Credit and Multi-Asset Funds – Investors seek income and capital preservation. Bond-centric funds with flexible equity/digital allocations and convertible bond structures will remain popular among Golden Visa applicants and global investors.
Strategic Takeaways
To prepare for 2026, investors should:
- Diversify Geographically – Balance exposure across core European markets, the USA and emerging markets like Brazil and Turkey.
- Focus on Resilient Sectors – Target living, logistics and infrastructure assets that benefit from demographic and technological tailwinds.
- Incorporate ESG – Prioritise projects with strong sustainability credentials to secure financing advantages and future-proof portfolios.
- Manage Duration and Liquidity – Align asset duration with rate expectations and choose fund structures that offer appropriate liquidity.
By integrating these strategies, Pagani Capital can guide its clients, private investors, family offices, wealth managers and immigration advisors, through a complex yet opportunity-rich investment landscape.
